Case Study: U.S. European Command

Posted on January 18, 2012

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Continuing our study of the intersection of interdependence and stability, we applied Model 2 (Swiss Economic Institute Index of Globalization/Worldwide Governance Indicators) to the U.S. European Command’s area of responsibility (see chart). There are six countries that reside in the “Unintegrated-Unstable” quadrant (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kosovo, and Uzbekistan). Eight countries reside in the “Interdependent-Unstable” quadrant (Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine). There remaining thirty-four countries reside in the “Interdependent-Stable” quadrant. There are ten countries that are in transition and are at risk for friction (Albania, Armenia, BiH, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine).

Analyzing these results further reveals that countries at risk for friction or reside in the “Unintegrated-Unstable” quadrant are either candidate (or potential candidate) countries of the EU: Albania, BiH, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey. The remaining countries (excluding Russia) at risk for friction or reside in the “Unintegrated-Unstable” quadrant are included in the EU’s Eastern Partnership: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine. Russia has recently proposed a geopolitical/economic union of former Soviet Republics, the ‘Eurasian Union,’ to build on the principles of integration that the EU champions.

While by no means the only organization representative of mutual cooperation on military matters, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members that are either at risk for friction or reside in the “Unintegrated-Unstable” quadrant are Albania and Turkey, neither of which are members of the EU. Candidates (or potential candidate) countries of NATO that are at risk for friction are: BiH, Georgia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Ukraine. The remaining states in the “Unintegrated-Unstable” quadrant or at risk for friction—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Russia, Serbia, (excluding Uzbekistan)—are members of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council and host Partnership for Peace missions. The Republic of Kosovo, in the “Unintegrated-Unstable” quadrant, is the site of an ongoing NATO peacekeeping mission but continues to dialogue with NATO and the EU on issues of integration.

These results suggest two implications for policymakers. First, that development of regional interdependence advance mutual cooperation in the region through economic partnerships, political unions, and military alliances should be pursued in order to promote domestic stability of these nations. Second, proactive policies are necessary to deter violence, prevent conflict, and establish peace in transition countries.

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